TD Cowen Dives into the Bitcoin Treasury Sector with New Research Coverage

TD Cowen has commenced its foray into the sphere of public Bitcoin treasury companies by introducing a comprehensive equity research coverage. In line with this move, the investment bank has rolled out valuation frameworks and performance benchmarks tailored specifically for this burgeoning sector, thereby broadening its research portfolio within the digital asset realm.

Nakamoto Holdings: What’s the Forecast?

Nakamoto Holdings has emerged as a focal point in this new coverage, securing a buy rating accompanied by an ambitious price target of $1.00. This projection significantly exceeds its recent market price. TD Cowen anticipates substantial gains of $394 million in Bitcoin for Nakamoto by 2027, attributing this optimism to expected Bitcoin prices reaching nearly $140,000 by late 2026.

How Does the Market View Other Players?

Positioned on NASDAQ as NAKA, Nakamoto Holdings distinguishes itself with strategic ownership in digital asset treasury firms globally, including Metaplanet in Japan and Treasury BV in the Netherlands. The company’s involvement spans across media and digital asset management sectors, underlining its versatile strategy in the digital economy.

Lance Vitanza and his team at TD Cowen regard Bitcoin as a robust store of value akin to digital gold, indicative of a promising future for the industry. Their analysis highlights the unique characteristics of Bitcoin treasury firms, setting them apart from Bitcoin ETFs and traditional tech stocks.

We are initiating coverage of Nakamoto Holdings with a BUY rating and a $1.00 price target. Our PT is based on estimated BTC $ Gain of $394 million for FY27E, a 2x multiple, and a Bitcoin price of ~$140k at Dec-26.

Parallel to this, SharpLink Gaming and Strive have also been identified with buy ratings and targets of $16 and $26 respectively. This broader sweep to include various digital asset treasuries aims to solidify the Bitcoin treasury companies as a distinct and investable market category.

Meanwhile, TD Cowen has revised its price target for Strategy, decreasing it from $440 to $350, while maintaining a positive outlook. This revision takes into account updated Bitcoin price forecasts and a reduced valuation multiplier for upcoming gains, adjusting 2026 projections to $7.87 billion from an initial $10.17 billion.

Will Regulations Shape Digital Assets’ Future?

TD Cowen’s recent publications underscore the rising significance of digital assets in the financial landscape. Their initiation of official coverage on PBTCs showcases a pioneering effort with individualized investment insights within this domain.

Earlier, TD Cowen flagged a unique U.S. policy climate influenced by regulatory consensus and momentum favoring deregulation. This landscape has encouraged investment banks to intensify their focus on digital asset markets.

• Coverage introduction signals TD Cowen’s deeper engagement with the Bitcoin treasury sector.
• Nakamoto Holdings and others scored buy ratings, reflecting their promising financial prospects.
• Regulatory dynamics are expected to play a pivotal role in shaping these sectors.

Steps towards regulatory reform are anticipated to emerge from agency initiatives rather than sweeping legislative actions, with potential risks if delayed beyond 2028. This perspective reflects TD Cowen’s strategic insight into the evolving regulatory and investment landscape surrounding digital assets.