Odds of Clarity Act signed into law in 2026 crash to 5-month low

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The odds of the Clarity Act, a United States bill that would create clear rules for the cryptocurrency industry, being signed into law in 2026 have dropped to their lowest level since January 23, 206.

On June 24, the odds of the Clarity Act reaching President Donald Trump’s desk for signing into law dropped by 24% over the past 24 hours to about 41% at press time, according to data from Polymarket. This contract for the Clarity Act on Polymarket dropped below the April 25 lows before the Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill in a 15-9 vote on May 14.

Clarity Act Polymarket’s contract. Source: Polymarket

The decline in the likelihood of the bill getting signed into law in 2026 reflects growing concerns over the shrinking legislative calendar before the August recess. Notably, lawmakers face limited floor time in July ahead of the August-to-September recess, raising fears that the bill could face further delays.

Meanwhile, unresolved negotiations on key issues such as ethics provisions, illicit-finance safeguards, and rules for stablecoins in decentralized finance (DeFi) continue to impede progress. Additionally, the chances of the Clarity Act being enacted in 2026 have decreased, as securing the roughly 60 votes needed to overcome a Senate filibuster remains a significant challenge despite some bipartisan support.

Clarity Act update ahead of next week’s Senate recess

With the U.S. Senate scheduled to begin a break from June 29 through July 10, 2026, Polymarket traders have been setting low odds of a potential floor vote before the recess. Nonetheless, the Clarity Act has some legislative activity in the near term, with Senator Tim Scott predicting its passage before August.  

For instance, the Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Artificial Intelligence Subcommittee will hold a field hearing titled “Building the Future of Finance: How the CLARITY Act Unlocks Innovation” on Friday, July 17, 2026, in New York.

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