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At the start of this year, Polymarket was the dominant prediction market platform when it came to crypto-themed event contracts. Across the two largest prediction markets right now, Polymarket dominated the market share here with 91.11% in the first week of January. Roughly five months later, this command has flipped almost entirely in Kalshi’s favour. In week ending May 17, data from Artemis shows that Kalshi drew in $454.2 million in weekly crypto-category spot volume (a new all-time high) versus Polymarket’s $297.1 million, a 60.45% to 39.55% split on a combined $751.3 million week. The tilt in volume dominance within this category has been noticeable since February, and with each passing week, Kalshi is seemingly tightening its grip.
This is not a story about a platform building a better product per se. Kalshi’s crypto markets winning at the moment is the same reason why its sports category is outpacing its rival. The regulated in the U.S. angle is a major reason for this swing. To compound this, over the last quarter, Polymarket has faced various regulatory battles that haven’t helped their volumes as well.
How the Share Inverted in Five Months
Kalshi’s first foray into crypto-based event contracts with noticeable volume came in and around the third quarter of 2024. After reaching a market share of 37.85% in November 2024, their share remained relatively flat throughout 2025 and did not cross 25% dominance in this category. Looking at the Artemis chart, the trend broke around February this year and since then, weekly crypto spot volume has gone vertical for Kalshi.
Polymarket, meanwhile, hasn’t lost volume in absolute terms, it’s just stopped growing. Holding $297M while Kalshi added an extra $400M of weekly turnover is the kind of stagnation that only looks bad in relative terms, and relative terms are what matters when you’re competing for the same liquidity.
TRON, Coatue and the CNN/CNBC Push
A few specific catalysts pulled the curve up. The TRON integration in December last year opened native USDT deposits directly into Kalshi accounts, which removed a big chunk of the friction that had previously pushed crypto-native traders toward Polymarket by default. The Coatue-led $1 billion raise at a $22 billion valuation then bankrolled an aggressive distribution push, with Kalshi event contracts now sitting inside Robinhood and WeBull where they’re being served to retail flow that has never touched a prediction market before.
The CNN and CNBC partnerships added the final piece by giving Kalshi’s pricing a mainstream finance broadcast channel that Polymarket, as an offshore platform, structurally can’t match. Crypto markets on Kalshi are now quoted alongside equity products in places where retail discovers them passively, rather than having to seek them out.
Polymarket’s Regulatory Quarter Did the Rest
Polymarket has carried a much heavier regulatory load than Kalshi. The India block cut off a major user base, the Rhode Island AG suit added another state-level challenge, and even the shared blows, the House Oversight probe and the Ninth Circuit ruling on Nevada, land harder on a platform with offshore structure and a weaker US compliance posture. Each individually would be manageable. Stacked together, they create exactly the kind of jurisdictional uncertainty that pushes institutional and risk-averse retail volume toward the CFTC-regulated alternative sitting right next door.
The 91% to 39% inversion lines up almost perfectly with this regulatory pressure window. Coincidence is possible, but the timing makes the cleaner explanation hard to ignore.
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