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Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a decisive technical level that could determine whether its latest recovery develops into a confirmed bull market or faces another significant correction.
Notably, the flagship cryptocurrency rebounded strongly on September 19, climbing back above $80,000 as renewed demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs, a wave of short liquidations, and improving regulatory sentiment fueled buying pressure.
According to TradingShot analysis shared in a TradingView post on September 18, Bitcoin is testing a critical resistance zone formed by its 1-day 20-period moving average and the 50-week moving average (MA), a level the analyst described as the key barrier between a bear phase and a new bull cycle.
Bitcoin price analysis chart. Source: TradingViewThe analyst noted that Bitcoin’s current setup resembles the conditions that preceded sharp declines in January and May 2026.
In both instances, rounded-top formations broke lower, triggering aggressive selloffs. Similar warning signs are emerging again, with the 1-day MACD remaining under pressure after a bearish crossover and the CCI rebounding after briefly falling below -100.
Bitcoin has also failed to reclaim its 50-week moving average despite testing it for three consecutive weeks.
According to the analysis, a weekly close above the 50-week MA is the key condition needed to confirm a new Bitcoin bull market and signal the start of a fresh bullish cycle.
Bitcoin’s key price levels
The outlook places this resistance near the $82,000 region, which aligns with broader market analysis identifying $82,700 to $83,000 as a pivotal breakout zone for Bitcoin.
However, if Bitcoin fails to break through resistance, the analyst warned that the cryptocurrency could follow a path similar to previous bearish legs seen earlier this year.
Using Fibonacci extension projections, the analysis identified a downside target of approximately $61,500.
That level falls within a major support zone defined by the 200-week and 250-week moving averages, areas that have historically attracted buyers during deeper corrections. The projected target would represent a decline of more than 20% from current levels.
Despite the technical caution, several market factors continue to support Bitcoin’s broader uptrend.
The latest rally was fueled by a major short squeeze that liquidated hundreds of millions of dollars in bearish crypto bets.
At the same time, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted strong inflows, including $433 million on September 18 and $159 million on September 17.
Sentiment also improved following positive regulatory signals from the CFTC and SEC regarding digital assets.
Bitcoin price analysis
By press time, Bitcoin was trading at $81,329, up about 5% over the past week.
Bitcoin seven-day price chart. Source: FinboldFrom a technical standpoint, Bitcoin remains in a bullish structure, trading about 15% above its 200-day SMA near $70,400 and comfortably above its 50-day SMA around $72,500, with a golden cross still intact.
Momentum also remains healthy, with the 14-day RSI at 63.5, indicating strength without overbought conditions. Investors are now watching the $82,700 to $83,000 resistance zone, which many analysts view as the key level for confirming the next phase of Bitcoin’s bull market.
Featured image via Shutterstock
The post Expert sets crucial condition that will confirm Bitcoin’s bull market appeared first on Finbold.
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