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Bettors have given the CLARITY ACT a below-even chance of becoming law this year, despite consistent efforts by Republicans on the Hill for a vote. Democrats continue to stonewall over reservations about the bill’s ability to restrain President Trump from making crypto profits.
According to Polymarket, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) has a 34% chance of being signed into law in 2026. Approximately $1.9 million has been traded since January 11, when the markets opened.
Polymarket odds on CLARITY Act passing this year. Source: Polymarket.Republicans are wildly optimistic about the bill’s passage. Rep. Bryan Steil and Senator Cynthia Lummis. Have spoken in recent times in support of the CLARITY ACT.
Rep. Steil was quoted as saying that it is “absolutely essential that the United States sets the gold standard for regulation in the digital asset space.” Sen. Lummis drummed up support for the draft on X, saying, “We wrote the Clarity Act to give law enforcement more tools, not fewer.” She went on to state how the bill makes provision for investigators to freeze illicit funds within hours.
The math problem the bill has to solve
The bill currently does not have enough votes in the Senate for it to be sent to the president’s desk. And the market seems to factor that in.
Senate Republicans, though, planned to release a new draft of the bill after meeting with President Trump at the White House. The bill is filibuster-proof, meaning it needs 60 votes in the Senate to pass. And at the moment, no Democrat has signaled their intention to support the CLARITY Act.
The Senate Banking Committee had advanced the bill to the floor in a 15-9 vote on May 14. Two Democrats, Sen. Ruben Gallego and Sen. Angela Alsobrooks, joined the Republicans then, but such support seems to have cooled.
Trump’s crypto largesse presents a stumbling block
The ensuing battle is over ethical guardrails that prevent a conflict of interest. Democrats are particularly focused on President Trump’s $1.4 billion profit from crypto.
Sen. Chris Murphy and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand argue that the president should not profit from an industry his administration regulates. Gillibrand stated that any crypto legislation “must include ethics reforms that prohibit members of Congress, the president and their spouses from cashing in on their office.”
President Trump, however, wants the bill sorted soon enough despite his recent refusal to sign any legislation until the SAVE Act is passed.
Crypto enthusiasts are singing the same tune as the president. Patrick McHenry, former House Financial Services Committee Chair, stated in a blog post that the CLARITY Act is comparable to the Telecommunications Act of 1996 and beckoned on Congress to act before it’s too late.
A floor vote is expected in the Senate, something Senate Majority Leader John Thune has been angling for this month, regardless of disagreement over the text. The House would then need to agree on the version passed by the Senate before it’s sent to the president’s desk.
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