Bitwise, Tiger Research both say Bitcoin's bear market is approaching its final stage

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Tiger Research and Bitwise CIO are now calling the bear market bottom after Bitcoin’s price rebound into July.

Bitcoin briefly climbed to a daily high of $62,200 on Binance Thursday afternoon. It now hovers around $61,400, putting a 2.49% gain in the day and 3.08% gain over the last seven days. 

Tiger Research analysts issued a comment Thursday saying they are “becoming more constructive on Bitcoin from a cycle perspective,” adding that Bitcoin has likely entered the final leg of the current bear market. 

“Our view is not that the exact bottom is already in, but that Bitcoin has likely entered the final quartile of the current bear-market process,” the analysts wrote. 

Tiger Research says a liquidation event is still possible, but remains a late-cycle liquidation.

“One final liquidation leg remains possible, but the remaining downside increasingly looks like late-bear-market downside, while the upside still belongs to the next full cycle of liquidity recovery, institutional allocation, and monetary-premium expansion.”

Bitwise CIO sees Strategy’s sales policy as bottom sign

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan made a similar comment, calling the market bottom, owing to Strategy’s policy to begin selling its Bitcoin holdings and the recent selloff in Strategy’s STRC preferred stock.

In a post on Wednesday, Hougan pointed to STRC as the proximate trigger for Bitcoin’s slide below $60,000.

STRC launched with a $100 par value and a 9% yield, with Strategy pledging to raise the rate by 0.25 to 0.50 percentage points whenever the price dropped below par.

That mechanism broke down as both Bitcoin and MSTR shares fell. The rate climbed to 11.5%, but STRC’s market price dropped to $75, pushing the effective yield to 15.4%.

Strategy responded on June 29 by saying it would stop defending the $100 price through automatic rate increases. The firm will instead allow STRC to float freely and periodically sell BTC to cover dividend payments or buy back STRC shares.

Hougan said Strategy’s decision is a pragmatic response, saying “The volatility in STRC is a natural and important part of the crypto cycle. I think we’re nearing the bottom.”

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