Bitcoin’s Potential Bottom: Delayed or Just Out of Reach?

Whilst Ethereum maintains its stance above $2,200, the broader altcoin market shows a lack of bullish drive, an indication of caution that resonates throughout the crypto realm. At the same time, diplomatic movements loom large, with the Iranian Parliament’s Speaker calling for a cease-fire in Lebanon, alongside the release of frozen Iranian funds, as prerequisites for diplomatic advancement. As the global stage braces for these geopolitical shifts coupled with a 1% rise in inflation today, the crypto community remains vigilant, pondering if Bitcoin has indeed reached its lowest point in the current cycle.

What Are Bear Markets Suggesting?

Crypto bear markets often end when selling pressures dwindle and key factors driving long-term price declines start reversing. However, a recent study from CryptoQuant suggests Bitcoin’s current cycle might not be nearing its end. By examining three distinct on-chain indicators, they urge caution amidst any enthusiasm as Bitcoin edges toward the $73,000 level, due to market signals that have yet to confirm a genuine bottom.

Are On-Chain Signals Offering Hope?

The profitability of long-term Bitcoin holders, often referred to as “whales,” is one major indicator; these investors continue to hold assets for over 155 days. Historically, true market bottoms form only when these holders face losses. Current indications show these investors still profiting, suggesting the needed capitulation is yet to come into play.

Another metric, the MVRV Z-Score, aids in assessing whether Bitcoin is under- or overvalued. It remains positive, contrasting with the negative values that historically align with market bottoms. Despite a considerable downturn and significant losses across the board, analysts remain cautious without this confirming signal.

A third component is the Cost Basis Crossover: a “death cross” transpires when short-term holders’ realized price drops below that of long-term holders, indicating investor capitulation and signaling proximity to a market bottom. Currently, this crossover hasn’t materialized, hinting at further continuation of the current market phase.

When Might Bitcoin Hit Its Cycle Bottom?

CryptoQuant’s analyst, Sunny Mom, anticipates that the cost basis lines for short-term and long-term holders could intersect by the fourth quarter of 2026. This time frame aligns with potential negative MVRV Z-Scores and a final series of panic selling from whales, historically indicative of a market bottom. The forecast suggests Bitcoin could find its floor between $55,000 and $60,000 when these technical indicators align.

“After hitting the bottom in late 2026, we anticipate a two-year accumulation phase. With the upcoming Halving due in April 2028, Bitcoin’s price tends to peak 12–18 months after this event, making the end of 2029 a plausible window for a parabolic bull run.”

Investors banking on swift returns in the near term might face disillusionment if these predictions hold true, as a longer-term outlook appears to be more realistic according to the current data.