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On-chain research firms and cycle analysts are projecting late 2026 as the most likely time for Bitcoin to make its cycle low. Those who agree with this scenario note that a further macroeconomic deterioration or a regulatory crackdown could cause the price to bottom in 2027.
The global crypto market has witnessed some heavy sell-off over the first half of 2026. Its cumulative market cap stands at around $2.18 trillion. Bitcoin price is down by more than 27% on the year-to-date (YTD).
Late 2026 is the projected time for Bitcoin to bottom
A Glassnode report highlights Q3 as a possible bottom, noting early accumulation, while Mudrex Learn suggests October 2026 to December 2026 as the most probable period, with a low of $50,000 to $55,000, according to Anupam Dodechaโs analysis.
Both on-chain research firms suggest a market closer to a bottom than to a top. Mudrex report notes that Bitcoin recently hit a low of $60,000 in recent weeks before recovering, a bounce it read as evidence of buyer support rather than a confirmed floor. As of July 12, The Motley Fool put Bitcoin near $63,853, saying the crypto was in its worst bear market since 2022.
The halving makes late 2026 the most probable time for Bitcoin to bottom.
Mudrex highlights the four-yearly halving that occurred in April 2024 as a reason to expect a bottom in the late 2026 time frame. The analyst notes that previous cycles saw a bottom between 24 and 28 months after the event, putting the focus on mid-2026 to late 2026.
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Another way to look at it is to take the October 2025 peak and count 12 to 15 months for a typical bear market, which would put the bottom in the fourth quarter of 2026. History provides further context, with Bitcoinโs last cycle low in June 2022 at around $17,600, and it held even through the FTX collapse that November.ย
Seasonally, December has repeatedly marked capitulation: $3,200 in 2018 and $15,500 in late 2022. Mudrex notes that CryptoQuant, Glassnode, Benjamin Cowen, and PlanB all agree that the bottom is likely to be in Q4.
Why Bitcoinโs bottom could slip into 2027
The report notes that their projection of a late 2026 bottom assumes that the macroeconomic environment will not deteriorate. A deep recession, a regulatory crackdown, or other factors could push the bottom into the first quarter of 2027.
Meanwhile, another scenario suggests that Bitcoinโs low could come in the summer of 2026 if ETFs drive sufficient demand to prevent a 70%+ drawdown. However, the analyst highlights that this scenario is unprecedented and would require a significant change in the demand-supply dynamics.
The Motley Fool highlights quantum computing as the biggest threat to Bitcoin in the next cycle, with a sufficiently powerful quantum computer threatening to decrypt crypto assets. BIP-360, which was approved in February 2026, is the first step in making Bitcoin quantum-resistant.
The publication estimates that every major blockchain will have to invest more in cryptographic research to make their networks investable. This projection highlights another factor that could disrupt Bitcoinโs cycle and cause it to bottom. Even if the cycle low occurs in late 2026, the assets that drive the price upward may be different.
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