4 weeks ago
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After closing the week below a crucial support level, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below the $65,000 support for the first time since the early February crash, reaching a two-week low of $64,152.
Amid this performance, some analysts have warned that the flagship crypto could be on the “cusp of bearish acceleration,” warning that another major crash could be around the corner.
Bitcoin Loses The 200-Week EMA
On Monday, analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that Bitcoin produced a “historically pivotal” development after closing last week below the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which currently sits “at the center of a major confluence zone.”
Notably, the 200-week EMA aligns with BTC’s Post-Halving Re-accumulation Range highs, located between $66,000-$71,000. Meanwhile, the Post-Halving Re-accumulation Range lows, around the $58,000-$60,000 levels, define the broader structure of BTC’s current range.
Over the past three weeks, the cryptocurrency attempted to develop a demand region around this area, which was previously a major supply area. However, this level hasn’t historically been a structurally reliable support for BTC’s price, the analyst asserted, noting that it has previously acted as a 10-month resistance.
“In the current structure, we have seen three consecutive weeks of elevated sell-side volume in this region, with limited meaningful buy-side response,” he explained.
Per the post, this imbalance has led to a weekly close below the 200-week EMA, losing it as support in this timeframe. This suggests that a “continuation of Bearish Acceleration into its second wave” could follow soon.
The analyst cautioned that now that price has closed the week below this critical level, there is a “strong probability that Bitcoin presses back toward the underside of that EMA to attempt turning it into new resistance.”
If the underside retest holds, the structure would shift from defending the support to confirming the resistance at this level. He warned that if that level begins to act as resistance, downside continuation will become increasingly probable.
BTC’s Bottom Targets $30,000
Rekt Capital also noted that BTC’s recent performance aligns closely with its price action in prior cycles. As he detailed, in 2018 and 2022, a weekly close below the 200-week EMA acted as a structural trigger to the second wave of bearish acceleration.
“Bitcoin would attempt to reclaim the level, turn it into resistance, and then dissipate lower. That pattern is now attempting to replicate itself,” he asserted.
Similarly, Ali Martinez pointed to the cryptocurrency’s historical performance, but on the three-day chart, affirming that this has been one of BTC’s key timeframes from a macro perspective.
According to Martinez’s post, market observers must watch the upcoming interaction of the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), as the crossover between these two indicators on the three-day timeframe has historically preceded the final leg down of the bear market.
Bitcoin dropped around 50%-72% from its 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycle tops before its death crosses took place in late 2014 and 2018, and mid 2022. Following the 50-day and 200-day SMAs crossovers, the flagship crypto experienced another 45%-52% decline.
Now, BTC has fallen more than 52% from its October 2025 peak and is approaching a potential death cross on the three-day chart by the end of February. “If history repeats — even partially — this could signal the beginning of the final leg down of this cycle,” the analyst warned.
Based on this, Martinez predicted that another 30%-50% correction from current levels could follow, placing the cryptocurrency’s target near the $30,000-$40,000 supports. “If the cross confirms, it becomes a level to take very seriously,” he concluded.
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