Will Trump Pardon FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried? Polymarket Bets Say Maybe

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Speculation is increasing that former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) could be next in line for a presidential pardon from Donald Trump, following the recent clemency granted to Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ). While SBF’s legal situation differs significantly from CZ’s, several developments are fueling renewed discussion about his potential early release.

Polymarket Bets Surge on Sam Bankman-Fried Presidential Pardon

Crypto betting platform Polymarket has seen a notable increase in activity regarding SBF’s chances of receiving a presidential pardon. Following CZ’s pardon, SBF’s odds jumped from 5.6% to roughly 12% within just 12 hours, with over $6.5 million wagered on the market. One bettor even placed $302,090 on SBF, the convicted crypto fraudster.

Another Polymarket market asking whether SBF would be released from custody in 2025 also saw significant movement, rising from 4.3% to 19.1% before settling near 15.5%. While SBF has filed an appeal to reduce his 25-year sentence, legal experts suggest it is unlikely any developments will occur before the end of the year. This makes a presidential pardon the most realistic pathway for his early release.

Comparing CZ and SBF: Scale of Offenses and Pardon Viability

The pardon of Binance CEO CZ has prompted debate over whether SBF could receive similar treatment. Analysts emphasize that the scale and nature of their offenses differ considerably:

• CZ’s Offense: Violated U.S. Anti-Money Laundering laws by allowing illicit funds to pass through Binance. Received a four-month sentence. Actions were largely compliance-related.
  
• SBF’s Offense: Convicted of fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering, misappropriating billions in customer funds, and sentenced to 25 years in prison.
  

Crypto lawyer Jake Chervinsky said he would be “truly shocked” if Trump pardoned SBF, noting SBF’s prior status as a Democratic mega-donor and his negative reputation in Washington. 

Sasha Hodder, founder of Hodder Law, added: “CZ’s wrongdoing was compliance-related and nowhere near the scale of SBF or Do Kwon.” 

Trump himself framed CZ’s actions as “not even a crime” and claimed he was being unfairly persecuted by the Biden administration.

• Also Read :
•   Why Trump Pardoned CZ, BitMEX Founders, and Silk Road’s Ulbricht
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Trump and the Crypto Connection: Why SBF’s Pardon Faces Hurdles

CZ’s pardon may have been influenced by his strong support for the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial crypto platform. SBF, by contrast, lacks comparable political ties, making his path to a pardon uncertain despite the surge in betting market activity.

Recent reports indicate that SBF is attempting to align himself with conservative figures, including appearances on conservative media outlets and claims of political persecution.

 Additionally, his parents have reportedly engaged allies in Trump’s circle to advocate for his release. While these efforts suggest a strategic push for a pardon, experts remain skeptical about the likelihood of success.

Is Sam Bankman-Fried Likely to Get a Trump Pardon?

While the betting markets and public speculation have intensified following CZ’s pardon, SBF’s situation remains far more complex. Legal experts agree that without political leverage or extraordinary circumstances, a presidential pardon for SBF would be highly unlikely. 

However, ongoing efforts by SBF and his family indicate that the conversation around his potential clemency is far from over.