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Singapore’s central bank is likely to hold monetary policy steady this week, citing low inflation and ongoing US trade uncertainties, while domestic growth remains stable.
A recent survey revealed that 16 out of 20 economists anticipate the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will maintain its current policy settings. On the other hand, four economists, including some from DBS Group Holdings Ltd. and TD Securities, speculate that the bank might begin easing its policy again after maintaining it unchanged during its final review in July.
Central banks adopt different strategies to support their country’s economic growth
The MAS carefully reviews its policy four times annually. In January and April, the agency loosened its policy setting to support the country’s uncertain economic status, as it encountered slowdowns and risks that required cautious navigation.
Unlike most central banks, which prefer adjusting interest rates in the event of growing uncertainties, Singapore’s central bank’s main aim is to stabilize prices by controlling the rise of its dollar based on trade.
This act follows the central banks’ new decision to adopt different operational strategies. To support this claim, reliable sources report that Indonesia and New Zealand are further reducing their interest rates to enhance the countries’ economic growth. At the same time, Thailand, Malaysia, and Australia keep their rates steady as they thoroughly examine the impacts of previous changes.
The US Federal Reserve, on the other hand, had earlier lowered borrowing costs for the first time since December last year. Concerning the situation, Lloyd Chan, a Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG’s Global Markets Research in Singapore, commented that the central bank appears to be holding off on any additional action until it identifies any signs of economic decline.
Escalating trade tensions between the US and China also shape Singapore’s policy outlook. The US-China trade conflict has escalated as Beijing retaliates to US tariff policies with restrictions on the exports of rare-earth minerals. Regarding the US’s tariff policies, US President Donald Trump made public his intentions to impose additional tariffs and set up limitations on software sales to China. With this escalation, companies are getting ready for any potential interruption.
China’s commerce ministry blamed Washington for raising trade tensions between the two countries after Trump announced on Friday that he would impose additional tariffs on China’s exports to the US, along with new controls on critical software, by November 1.
“Wilful threats of high tariffs are not the right way to get along with China,” a spokesperson for the commerce ministry said on Sunday, according to the state news agency Xinhua. “China’s position on the trade war is consistent. We do not want it, but we are not afraid of it.
According to the spokesperson, while China does not seek a trade war, it will defend its interests if the US continues down this path.
Singapore’s economy demonstrates signs of recovery, boosting the Singapore dollar
Despite growing tension in the market, analysts have highlighted some bright spots in Singapore’s economy. To illustrate this, consumer spending grew more than expected in August and manufacturing activity increased to 56.4 last month, marking its eighth month of significant growth.
Aditionally, private home prices posted their largest gain in three quarters, led by a jump in sales of new apartments. This rise and growing interest in safe regional investments have boosted the Singapore dollar. While it has gained more than 5% against the US dollar this year, it has remained relatively stable since MAS’s last decision at the end of July.
However, Singapore’s core inflation continued to decline in August for the second month in a row. Concerning this, officials upheld the belief that price increases of imported goods will remain moderate soon. Afterwards, they forecasted that the core inflation will average between 0.5% and 1.5% this year.
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