Most BTC holders are not under selling pressure, but new buyers anxious

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Short-term BTC buyers are feeling selling pressure, potentially leading to a capitulation. Events like that can cause short-term volatility, eventually setting up the market for new accumulation. 

BTC short-term holders felt the pinch of the current downturn. The latest cohorts of buyers are not necessarily panic-selling, but their pressure point is above $111,000. The recent dip of BTC to $109,000 set up conditions for a minor capitulation. 

Based on Glassnode data, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) index for short-term buyers has shifted to a small loss, suggesting some traders may decide to sell and eventually buy lower. 

In the past months, steep drops in the NUPL metric coincided with a market local bottom, usually preceding a recovery following the redistribution of coins. BTC continues to go through a cycle with 25% drawdowns and fewer capitulation events on the spot market. 

The crypto fear and greed index is at 50 points and is neutral after a few days of fearful trading. However, the index shows the attitude of derivative traders, while holders show more resilience. 

Are BTC holders ready to capitulate? 

Despite the NUPL metric turning worse for the latest buyers, in general, BTC holders are very far from capitulation. As Cryptopolitan previously reported, the current market cycle has spent more than a year without a big capitulation event, only with short-term liquidations and deleveraging.

Short-term BTC buyers may be underwater, but on average, holders are not feeling anxiety and are in the money. | Source: Bitcoin Magazine Pro

At current valuations, on average, holders are not even in the anxiety zone, boosted by previous accumulation in the past year. BTC gains support from an ongoing push to hold more coins, avoiding capitulation. 

Market downturns usually lead to large-scale position liquidations, but BTC owners are not eager to sell, expecting more value from BTC as a reserve. 

Based on HODL waves data, wallets aged over one month have only expanded their reserves. Shark wallets went through rapid accumulation, with no signs of preparing to sell. In the past year, shark wallets added more than 1M BTC, accumulating even during periods of market panic.

Direct dumping on the market is now rarer, as DeFi offers additional opportunities to tap the value without crashing the BTC price. 

Will BTC miners capitulate? 

BTC miners have always faced the threat of capitulation. At the current market price, most miners are profitable. Based on the hash ribbon metrics, miners are currently not producing coins at a loss and are not in distress. 

Miner sell pressure diminished in the past year and is near all-time lows, despite the highly competitive mining sector. | Source: BGeometrics

Miners, just like long-term holders, are now more cautious when divesting BTC. Miners retain reserves of 1.89M BTC, close to their usual level. Miner sell pressure has actually fallen since the end of 2024, and is close to all-time lows. 

While miners sell strategically, mass inflows to open markets are much rarer. Newly mined coins are also valuable as they lack a history of involvement with illegal activities. 

With the rise of treasuries, miners also have another motive to store their BTC, especially for publicly traded mining companies. 

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