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Investors who once watched earnings calendars and chart patterns are now watching the White House.
The question moving across trading chat groups and brokerage screens is simple: Which company will the U.S. take a stake in next?
The pattern has been clear since the administration began taking ownership stakes in public companies to secure control over critical industries, a move that breaks from what previous presidents did.
Stocks tied to these announcements have seen sharp, rapid climbs after the news hits. This has pushed traders to try to think the same way Trump thinks when choosing strategic national assets, according to reporting from Bloomberg.
Adam Giddens, a 31-year-old investor from Vancouver who works in capital markets and trades in his free time, said he has changed his strategy completely. He used to rely on screening tools and social-media alerts, but now he studies government procurement records and federal resource reports.
Adam said the reason is simple: when the administration buys into a company, “the shares tend to jump,” and traders want to be in before that move happens.
Investors move toward critical minerals and strategic materials
Adam is currently watching Military Metals Corp., a firm working on sourcing antimony, a mineral used in explosives, infrared sensors, and nuclear weapons systems.
Right now, China is the world’s biggest supplier of antimony, and Russia is also a major source.
Adam said, “That combination of strategic importance and supply chain vulnerability caught my attention,” and he believes Military Metals could receive government attention because of the size and location of its reserves.
He said he has been reviewing government filings and industry papers to confirm what he suspects: the administration wants to ensure the U.S. cannot be cut off from critical industrial inputs.
This interest in minerals is part of a broader effort by the administration to secure control of semiconductor supply, battery metals, and rare-earth elements.
There is also a new exchange-traded fund being developed by Roundhill Financial, designed to mirror industries connected to U.S. strategic investment priorities. Traders see this as confirmation that the administration is not slowing down and that more public companies will be involved.
Adam has already seen profits from this strategy. He bought shares of MP Materials Corp. before the Pentagon acquired 15% of the company in July, which sparked a 95% gain in its stock. MP Materials produces rare-earth materials used in electric vehicles, robotics, and electronics.
Aniket Shah, head of sustainability and transition strategy at Jefferies, said that investors need to consider how closely a company can work with the state. He said, “Part of this analysis of businesses going forward has to be this political relationship with the state.”
After the MP Materials move, the government used commitments in the CHIPS Act to take nearly 10% of Intel in August. In September, the U.S. took 5% of Lithium Americas, followed by 10% of Trilogy Metals the next month. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has said that defense contractors could be next.
AI tools, graphite bets, seabed mining, and rising risks
Cole Hansen, a Boston-based trader who works in shipping support, said he asked AI chatbots why the administration chose the companies it has backed so far. He said the chatbots pointed him toward graphite, which is heavily controlled by China.
That led him to Novonix, which received a $755 million loan from the Department of Energy to build a synthetic graphite facility in the U.S. He bought shares in October, but the company’s stock has dropped about 40% since then.
Brian Laks, partner at Old West Investment Management, said he expects seabed mining firms such as TMC The Metals Company and Odyssey Marine Exploration to be possible targets.
Brian said Old West already held MP Materials, Lithium Americas, and Trilogy before the government stakes because they expected U.S. backing for mineral independence.
Some traders are profiting after government stakes are announced. Matthew Tuttle of Tuttle Capital Management wrote put options on Intel in October, betting investors would follow the government into the stock.
Matthew closed out the trade for a gain on November 5, saying, “Somebody else is doing this too and someone with a whole lot deeper pockets and way broader reach.”
Not everyone supports this strategy. Rand Paul called the Intel stake “a step toward socialism.” Analysts warn that companies favored by the government may become less efficient, or may face intense competition that weakens profits.
There have also been cases where rumors led to spikes that collapsed within hours, such as Critical Metals, which climbed over 100% before losses hit when officials said no deal was planned.
For now, the government continues to take positions. Matt Gertken of BCA Research said, “For now, there’s an impetus to make sure that some of these companies are protected and that some of these supply chains are resilient.
At some future date, that could shift back because of inefficiencies, because of deficits, because of inflation. But for now, it’s important for investors to know which way the wind is blowing.”
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