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Bitcoin is struggling to break out of a narrowing range, with on-chain and market data showing momentum slipping into neutral-to-bearish territory.
Data from CryptoQuant, highlighted by Axel Adler in his weekly commentary, points to fading demand and weak follow-through from buyers after a failed attempt to hold above $115,000.
The cryptocurrency’s indecision comes as September draws to a close, a month historically associated with negative returns.
Bitcoin price and volume across exchanges. Source: CryptoQuantAnalysts watch support and resistance levels
Bitcoin traded between a local maximum of $115,400 and a minimum of $108,600 in the past week, before settling into a tight $108,800–109,800 band. Attempts to regain higher ground met with consistent selling at descending highs.
CryptoQuant’s data suggests the immediate resistance level sits around $111,000–112,000.
A decisive return above this band could restore bullish momentum and allow a retest of $114,000–115,400. By contrast, a break below $108,600 could accelerate losses towards $106,000–105,000, a stronger support zone.
“The structure of descending highs remains unbroken,” Adler noted, pointing out that the base above $108,600 is crucial to maintaining neutrality. If that base gives way without quick recovery, the correction could deepen.
Bitcoin momentum is down. Source: CryptoQuantMomentum readings turn negative
CryptoQuant’s 30-day momentum index ended the week around –2%, down from +1% at the start of the period, marking a swing of three percentage points.
Momentum ranged from –6% to +1% across the week, with only two of seven sessions registering above zero, which itself was too few to confirm any sustained trend strength.
The loss of the $114,000–115,000 support coincided with this downturn, reinforcing the signal that cooling and unloading dominate market behaviour.
“For bullish reversal need return above $112K with holding > 0 several days,” Adler wrote. Without that, neutral-bearish scenarios, including another test of $108,600 or lower, remain the base case.
What to watch for the coming week, quarter
Bitcoin’s recent price trajectory reveals a market that’s not decisively bullish, but not collapsing either. Its momentum remains neutral to slightly bearish, and the next direction it may take lies on buyers and sellers.
If the base holds and demand metrics recover, BTC may stage a renewed advance. But failure to do so might drag it into more extended consolidation or a deeper pullback.
In his forecast for the coming week, Adler suggested, not financial advice by the way, that the market status remains neutral and participants should hold.
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