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Employment openings have this month fallen to their lowest level since February 2021, and it’s not looking great for the U.S. job market.
According to a new report from Indeed on Tuesday, their Job Postings Index dropped to 101.9 by October 24. For reference, that index uses February 2020 as its baseline of 100, so it literally hasn’t touched this low in nearly five years.
This latest number means a 0.5% dip from the start of the month, and a 3.5% fall compared to mid-August, according to the last update from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
If you’re wondering what’s going on, its the government shutdown that is still dragging on, blocking key labor reports from coming out.
The BLS was supposed to release its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey last Friday, a report that the Fed watches like a hawk, but with the shutdown still in play, that didn’t happen.
Fed cuts rates as hiring slowdown spreads
Instead of BLS data, the focus turned to August’s JOLTS report, which already showed the market losing steam, with openings at 7.23 million, flat from July, but still 7% lower than January.
That was before the shutdown slowed everything down even more. Indeed’s platform has shown the same pattern: job ads are shrinking, and employers are offering smaller pay increases. In August, salary offerings were only up 2.5% year-over-year. That’s weaker than the 3.4% gain posted back in January.
All of this is starting to worry the Fed, which just now started to cut interest rates again, after nearly a year of nothing.
In October, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 10–2 to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range of 3.75% to 4%. The reason? Inflation is still hovering about 1% above their 2% target, but the labor market looks worse.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook made that pretty clear on Monday. She said, “Hiring is slowing. We see this from Indeed, from job postings. We’re looking at a panoply of data, and those are real time. We’re not waiting on the unemployment report. There’s reason to be concerned, because there’s a slight uptick in the unemployment rate over the summer.”
We were also supposed to get the nonfarm payrolls report this Friday, but yeah—that’s canceled too. Dow Jones surveyed a group of economists who predicted we would’ve seen a 60,000 drop in jobs for October and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.5%.
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