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Competition between world powers and economic battles have emerged as the biggest threats facing the planet in the coming years, a major new study shows.
The World Economic Forum put out its yearly Global Risks Report on Wednesday, painting a troubling picture of what lies ahead. When asked about the next two years, half of business executives and other leaders said they see rough times coming. Just 1% think things will stay peaceful.
Economic weapons and trade battles take center stage
The biggest worry on everyone’s mind right now is what the report calls geo-economic confrontation. Countries are increasingly using money as a weapon, whether through tariffs, supply chain manipulation, new regulations, or limiting investment flows. This growing rivalry could shrink worldwide commerce in a big way, the study warns.
“Concerns growing over an economic downturn, rising inflation and potential asset bubbles as countries face high debt burdens and volatile markets,” wrote Saadia Zahidi, who runs day-to-day operations at the World Economic Forum. The organization puts out this analysis every year.
Marsh, the world’s biggest insurance broker, works with the WEF on tracking these global threats. The company actually changed its name on Wednesday from Marsh McLennan.
John Doyle, who leads Marsh, told CNBC that the world isn’t dealing with one massive emergency right now. Instead, he said, “it’s a moment of poly-crises.” He pointed to conflicts over trade, cultural battles, fast-moving technology changes, and wild weather as just some of what companies are juggling these days.
“It’s a lot for businesses to confront and to manage,” Doyle said.
Coming in second place on the list of immediate dangers is false information spreading online and through other channels. Third is growing division in society, where groups with opposite views are drifting further apart. Looking out over 10 years, inequality stands out as the most connected problem tying everything else together.
All these issues make it harder for countries and organizations to work together when economic shocks hit, according to the findings.
More quickly than any other hazard assessed in the poll, one threat has risen to the top. Last year, worries about artificial intelligence going wrong ranked 30th among short-term risks; this year, they rank sixth among long-term dangers.
One significant risk of AI, according to the paper, is the loss of jobs. A negative circle of economic problems and public indignation could result from workers being replaced by robots, widening the wealth gap, further dividing society, and causing people to spend less money. According to the study, all of this would occur even as businesses saw a sharp increase in productivity.
Machine learning and quantum computing are coming together, developing faster than before. The report sounds an alarm about this supercharged situation, saying it “may lead to situations in which humans lose control.”
Insurers brace for growing losses
Even so, extreme weather still tops the list when leaders think about the next 10 years. Insurance companies are expected to pay out $107 billion for natural disasters in 2025. That marks the sixth year running that losses crossed $100 billion, a sharp jump from what insurers saw in the early 2000s.
Doyle brought up the California wildfires from early 2025 to make a point about insurance rules. He said rates need to match actual risk levels to bring more money into the market.
“There are risk takers. There are investors and insurance companies that are willing to finance these risks,” Doyle explained. He added that building codes should reflect what we learn from past disasters and that new technology needs to help manage the dangers.
The study predicts that “extreme heat, drought, wildfires and other extreme weather events are likely to become more intense and frequent.”
It’s interesting to see that environmental issues like pollution, species extinction, and significant changes in Earth’s natural systems have declined in importance. This demonstrates how the things that keep leaders up at night have evolved.
“Coalitions of the willing” are crucial right now, according to the report’s conclusion. To build strength and create practical solutions to the world’s most pressing problems, governments, academic institutions, businesses, and ordinary citizens must collaborate.
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