Bitcoin’s Market Balancing Act: US-China Thaw & Fed Puzzles

Following the United States and China reaching new accords, Bitcoin retested the $110,000 threshold, igniting a global risk appetite. However, remarks from Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell suggesting ambiguity about a December rate reduction nudged Bitcoin back to $107,000. By Friday morning, it found its footing between $109,600 and $110,200, with market attention pivoting from anticipated rate cuts to the trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing.

How are US-China Relations Affecting Markets?

Kyle Rodda, a senior analyst at Capital.com, posits that current investor sentiment leans more heavily on evolving US-China ties than temporary Fed policies. A new pact concerning tariff reductions and energy cooperation was unveiled following the meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping in South Korea. Timothy Misir, Research Director at BRN, remarked on the reassuring nature of this pact, which includes trade commitments and fentanyl regulation agreements.

With crucial macroeconomic data delayed by the ongoing US government shutdown, market analysts believe these diplomatic initiatives temporarily address the “data gap”. While Ether held steady at $3,900, BNB was valued at $1,100, and Solana traded just under $190, the cumulative cryptocurrency market stood at around $3.76 trillion.

What’s Driving Recent ETF Activity?

Amid continued outflows from US-based spot crypto ETFs, Friday marked a significant downturn. Bitcoin ETFs faced net outflows nearing $488 million, with no inflows in sight. Ethereum ETFs weren’t immune, experiencing a $184 million exodus, though Solana bucked the trend. The Bitwise BSOL fund drove $37.3 million in inflows across three consecutive days.

October 2025 has been recognized as one of the weaker Octobers in the past decade, as CoinGlass data indicates. Following a correction after the month’s peak, liquidations soared above $10 billion. Despite these challenges, Wincent Director Paul Howard remains upbeat about the market’s long-term trajectory, anticipating Bitcoin’s stability between $110,000–$120,000, while macroeconomic advancements could bolster risk assets ahead of November.

“The delays in rate cuts are causing temporary price dips, but improvements in macroeconomic conditions could brighten the outlook yet again,” said Howard.

– Bitcoin challenged $110,000 amid US-China trade diplomacy.

– Jerome Powell’s remarks introduced rate cut uncertainty, affecting Bitcoin.

– Spot Bitcoin ETFs faced substantial net outflows over the week.

– Solana witnessed inflows driven by Bitwise’s BSOL.

Amid global economic dynamics and shifting geopolitical relations, Bitcoin’s market continues to navigate uncharted waters. As investors process these varied signals, balancing caution with optimism remains pivotal in the cryptocurrency landscape.