Bitcoin’s Journey: Insights from On-Chain Data Reassessment

As Bitcoin‘s value edges just under $110,000, on-chain data analyst Ki Young Ju presents a fresh perspective following a period of skepticism about his previous forecasts. Despite a prior misjudgment casting doubt on on-chain analysis reliability, current trends suggest these reservations may be outdated.

Previously, Ju highlighted the complexities facing on-chain analysis, pointing to fluctuating elements like ETFs and corporate Bitcoin treasuries. Deciding to cease making direct price predictions, Ju is doubling down on analyzing data to provide a clearer picture of market dynamics.

Ju unveiled a chart indicating Bitcoin wallets’ average cost base of $55,900. The recent surge in market capitalization—$8 billion in a week—reflects robust on-chain influx, although selling pressure, not heightened demand, has primarily driven these price movements.

Sustainable Growth or Waning Momentum?

Ju explains, given the current climate, the influx largely originates from ETFs and treasury enterprises. At the $110,000 mark, long-term Bitcoin holders are witnessing considerable profits, with ETF investors nearing a pivotal cost margin of $112,000.

In notable insights, Ju mentions that despite this profitable phase, unrealized profits among major stakeholders (“whales”) remain modest, pointing to a market still simmering rather than boiling over. He observes that the days of skyrocketing profit rates marking rapid market expansions may be fading.

Concretely:
– BTC inflows to futures platforms from spot exchanges have decreased.
– There’s a tendency among whales to open fewer BTC-backed long positions.
– Public miners are scaling operations amidst consistent hash rate highs.

Ju warns that decreased BTC entries into futures markets could contribute to stagnant price advances. Notably, leverage in futures remains strong, with the correlation between open positions and USDT balances affirming ongoing speculation.

Demand is predominantly driven by ETFs and large corporations such as MicroStrategy. Despite existing challenges in these sectors, the recent market slowdown underscores the necessity for buoyant ETF investments to reignite upward market momentum.

“The market’s current structure emphasizes disciplined, sustained growth over volatile leaps, driven significantly by strategic long-term investments,” Ki Young Ju explained.