Bitcoin’s Dip Below Break-Even Cost Fuels Debate on Market Path

On January 12, Bitcoin‘s brief decline below the miner break-even threshold of approximately $101,999 reignited debates about the possible directions of the market in the near term. As this movement unfolds, differing opinions emerge, with some experts seeing it as a positive signal of demand resuming, while others warn of ongoing weaknesses in Bitcoin’s technical stance. This activity comes as the market seeks to integrate miner cost dynamics with ongoing political and economic uncertainties.

Is Bitcoin’s Underlying Strength Rising?

Some blockchain analysts argue that the recent price dip may mask an underlying growth. According to Wise Crypto, with capital inflows reviving from low levels, historical trends suggest periods when Bitcoin’s price falls below miner costs often coincide with long-term minimums. This scenario typically results in decreased supply pressure from miners and increased selectivity among buyers.

How Are Political Shifts Influencing Bitcoin?

Meanwhile, political events in the U.S. have injected uncertainty into the immediate macroeconomic landscape. A report by the New York Times involving an investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, allegedly tied to policy disputes over interest rates and the refurbishment of central headquarters, has cast doubts on the dollar. Interestingly, on that day, Bitcoin’s value ticked up slightly.

Matthew Sigel, from VanEck, emphasized, “Despite the political noise, Bitcoin saw a 1% increase in value, showcasing its sensitivity to macroeconomic uncertainties.”

From a technical viewpoint, the scene remains intricate. EGRAG CRYPTO highlighted Bitcoin’s monthly RSI dropping below 60, indicating a shift towards a negative momentum. However, there’s potential for an upward trend as observed, but confirmation from buyers is yet to emerge robustly.

Meanwhile, Crypto Chase notes the hesitance among traders between $92,000 and $93,000 suggests restrained demand. With significant moving averages above $101,000 lost on a weekly chart, there’s consolidated resistance around $96,000.

The current price movement of Bitcoin indicates an attempt to find balance in the short term. While there’s been a recent 1% rise, the weekly performance showed minor losses. Over the month, Bitcoin remains positive but is still down approximately 27% from its October 2025 peak of $126,000. Signals such as the Puell Multiple and MVRV indicate a pause in mid-cycle without signs of market overheating.